Identity Politics and Some Numbers

The No True Scotsman fallacy often appears in arguments about philosophy or religion.  It has some bearing on the change that is about to engulf Alberta.  The fallacy would sound something like this in a conversation about Alberta politics:

You:     No conservative would vote for the Progressive Conservative Party
Me:      Well...last election 58% of Albertans voted PC, and I think they would call themselves conservative
You:    Ah...well no true conservative would vote PC.

It seems that Alberta is on a collision course with a severe case of right wing identity politics. The biggest scandals of the Wildrose campaign, a  homophobic rant, and a weird statement about caucasian power, are clear examples of the right wing's obsession with identity and conformance. However, I'm pretty sure most Albertan's who got on the Danielle Smith bus think it's really about abstract notions of populism or change. Or even just the opportunity presented by an incompetent PC campaign, an organization seemingly in it's last days. Thus, the main question of the 2012 election seems to be, who are the real conservatives? This question wrapped in the grade school rhetoric of a family feud has overshadowed other topics.

But before we can unravel this question of who the real conservatives are, we have to consider the polling numbers.  Historically, conservative parties in Alberta get between 50% to 60% of the popular vote. In 2008 it was 58%, in 2004 57% and in 2001 61%. That range holds fairly true federally as well for Albertan voters.

In the 2012 election polling suggests that the combined conservative vote will be around 70%. The one I last saw reported 41% for Wildrose and 32% for PC, a total of 73%.  So it appears that this election has magically created an addition 10-15% more conservative voters.

It's obvious that a big chunk of Wildrose voters are coming over from the PC Party, but not enough to explain the 73% estimate.  The drop in PC support is probably more precipitous than we know and may be masked by Alberta Liberal party voters moving to the PC party out of fear and loathing.  What is actually left of the PC party will be an interesting question to look into next week.

That  leaves the original question of who are the real conservatives who will take power tomorrow? Well, the Wildrose Party will cruise to victory on a well crafted narrative that they are Alberta's true conservatives. They and their friends in the media, managed to demonize Alison Redford as a "liberal" and I saw the word socialist thrown around for good measure. So the Liberal Party and the Alberta NDP never really got into the game because Redford and the PC Party became the surrogate for everything true Alberta conservatives are supposed to hate.  They appear to have tapped into some powerful voodoo about what a true Albertan is.

I suspect that the 73% conservative vote estimate will snap back to the historical range when the votes are counted.  But that won't be enough to stop the Wildrose identity movement of true and pure conservatism from being elected.  And you know that that identity will be projected onto the national stage as what every damn Albertan bar none believes.   Gird your loins.

I can just hear it now....no true Albertan would tolerate a human rights commission...










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Mr Pinsent, with all due respect...

From the Canadian Press:

MONTREAL – Conservative Leader Stephen Harper's promise to reverse plans to scrap tax credits for productions deemed offensive to Canadian viewers came as a pleasant surprise Tuesday to those in the film and television business and a major blow to the religious right.

"The arts community I think can almost relax and unpack their bags," actor Gordon Pinsent said in a telephone interview with The Canadian Press.

Pinsent said he never would have expected such a change of heart from the Conservatives and wonders whether it means Harper may be open to other new ideas.

And magic fairies will fly out of my butt. And Charles McVety will be put in a straight jacket and fed-exed on a slow boat to outer Mongolia.

Right....

Grow up Mr. Pinsent. Don't you know that Stephen Harper is a compulsive liar. In spite of all the respect you've earned as one of Canada's greatest actors you sound like a child who is overjoyed when his father tells him he won't beat him anymore.

Unpack your bags my ass. Please recommend this post

Stelmach's Ad Hominems

Last Thursday's leadership debate was the only time you will get to see the Alberta party leaders debate. Provincial elections are usually very short, especially in Alberta where they're really sort of a formality. No insult intended to the hard working opposition parties, but the system is kind of skewed.

The remainder of the time you'll just get to hear them re-iterate their talking points in highly controlled settings. In other words, it will be one way conversations. Mr. Stelmach, for example, was quoted extensively and unfettered in the Sunday Sun today. He was probably speaking to Rick Bell from his special Premier's-Office-To-The-Calgary-Sun-Editorial-Ass-Kissers hot line.

I often wonder if the evolution of the Web and other social technologies will eventually turn politics around so that there is more of a true dialogue and more accountability.

Some random thoughts on the debate from Thursday night:

1. We were only about 30 minutes into the debate before Mr. Stelmach responded to a criticism by blaming a former Liberal Prime Minister. That must be some kind of record for restraint. I'm sure he wanted to get that lick in much sooner.
   



2. No one really one or lost the debate, but Mr. Stelmach barely survived. He didn't particularly impress me as being smart, articulate or as having any grasp on basic realities.
   
   
3. I thought Paul Hinman was a very good communicator even though I didn't buy into anything he had to say. He was far more polished than I expected. His ideas about making Hospitals compete with each other was confusing and sounded like Fraser Institute boiler plate. I read some other bloggers that were a little insulted by his subtle suggestions about family structure and the economy. They read it as women should stay home. I definitely felt his social agenda was bubbling beneath the surface. I think all the leaders were totally afraid to go into social issues.
   
   
4. I was hoping we could get through at least on Alberta election without someone saying that you can't fix the health care system by throwing more money at it. It is a dull and weak minded cliché and does not clarify any particular issue. If I had a nickel for every time an Alberta conservative said that you can't fix the health care system by throwing more money at the problem I would have a huge pile of nickels. But the amount would be probably less than the amount of money they've been throwing at the problem. They usually don't do their talking points and it was nice to see the Alberta Liberals and the NDP call them on it.


5. Mr. Stelmach called the Liberals and the NDP socialists. Instead of answering a question it's better to channel Joseph McCarthy. Aside from being an illiterate and childish comment it was pretty ironic. Mr. Stelmach has been a part of one of the most interventionist governments in Alberta's history. For example, they rejected public auto insurance, but then intervened with a massive bureaucracy to set rates, and now the have to spend millions of dollars appealling the strike down of their stupid restriction on civil awards for accident victims. Seriously, how dumb would a goverment have to be to reach into the future and handcuff the civil courts. And don't get us started on electrical deregulation, bill 40, and the general drift towards bigger, less efficient and more controlling government, and a thick layer of very expensive cronyism. Sure, waste a bunch more of my money while calling everyone else socialists and bragging about what it means to be a "conservative".
   



6. Aside from that, I thought the debate was too long. I would have preferred that if they take questions they take them unprepared from audience members, rather than pre-discussed quesions from media people. For example, Nirmal Naidoo ask Brian Mason how much money it would cost to fix the health care system. This wasn't really a question but just a short editorial from CICT-TV.


7. I couldn't help think of that Stealers Wheel song:
   
   

   Clowns to the left of me,
   Jokers to the right, here I am,
   Stuck in the middle with you.
   

   
   
   Maybe Kevin Taft should use that as a campaign song.
   
   

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